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Forecasting and AI

Recursive™ develops forecasting models, trades them in financial markets, and builds forecasting products. Founded by Big Four alumni with 15 years of experience working with Fortune 500 clients, we've reimagined forecasting to bring the same rigor to the rest of the market.

Revenue forecast

Six aligned charts with separate vertical scales show illustrative monthly revenue contributions across the complete historical and forecast periods: Trend, Seasonality, GDP, Mortgage rates, Consumer sentiment, Advertising spend. Each contribution spans the full 24-month outlook.$40M$50M$60M$70MSeparate scalesSep 202320262028

Hover or tap the chart to inspect a month. With the chart focused, use left and right arrows to move between months, Home and End to jump to the first or last month, and Escape to close the tooltip.

FY27 contributionsUSD millions
FY27 annual revenue
$606.1M
80% confidence interval
$558–655M

Forecast breakdown shown.

FY27 trend contribution
613.55 million dollars
FY27 seasonality contribution
+$0.0M
FY27 signal contribution
−$7.5M
FY27 GDP contribution
+$4.5M
FY27 Mortgage rates contribution
−$19.8M
FY27 Consumer sentiment contribution
+$0.4M
FY27 Advertising spend contribution
+$7.5M

To see what drives the forecast, select Breakdown.

24-month outlook

Forecasting Services

Custom forecasts, continuous updates, and scenario planning for your business.

Forecasting

Recursive™ builds custom forecasts: analyzing the macroeconomic signals that drive your business, testing hundreds of candidate drivers against your target variable, and validating every model on held-out data.

Managed Service

We run your P&L forecast end-to-end and refresh it continuously. All deliverables land in your inbox, and you have the option to get alerts when anything materially changes.
From data to delivery, we:
  1. 1Connect your data
  2. 2Improve your forecast
  3. 3Deliver updates

Scenario Planning

We model scenarios using the discipline that the Fed requires of the largest banks, stress testing the drivers that underpin your P&L.

How we compare to other solutions:

How the options compare across 5 criteria
CriterionRecursive™DIY spreadsheetAn analystSelf-serve platformProject consultancy
How It WorksManaged serviceGrowth assumptionsIn-house modelingConfigured softwareProject engagement
Custom statistical models
First forecast in weeks
External driver research
Rolling backtests
Forecasting managed for you
  • Yes
  • Depends
  • No

Products

Coming soon

Forecasting Agent

A general-purpose superforecasting agent, handling all types of forecasting problems. Pushing the frontier through qualitative, quantitative, and market based forecasts.
ResearchQualitativeModelsQuantitativeMarketsMarket-basedForecast

About Us

Our team brings 15 years of experience delivering forecasting solutions to Fortune 500 clients and more than a decade of experience managing a hedge fund and commodities trading advisor (CTA).

Our Methodology

Accuracy you can audit

Recursive backtests every model so you can see how accurately it predicted historical outcomes and how reliable its confidence intervals were.

Explainable by construction

Every forecast breaks down into its drivers, so you can see what contributes to the result.

Continuously refreshed

We track the signals that drive your business and update your forecast as new data arrives.

Bank-grade discipline

We use the scenario-planning discipline that the Fed requires of the largest banks.

Let's discuss your forecasting needs.

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